Abstract
Uncertainties in engineering analysis and design, as well as in decision-making are unavoidable. Reducing these uncertainties is often difficult or impossible. In particular, the aleatory type of uncertainty which is really the variability in observed information is not reducible, whereas reducing the epistemic type of uncertainty that represents the inaccuracy in predicting future events may not be practically feasible. Recognition of these uncertainties is a necessary prerequisite in the reliability approach; moreover, modeling and quantification (or estimation) of these uncertainties are steps required in any reliability or risk analysis.
However, even though reducing the level of uncertainties is not always feasible nor practical, minimizing the effects of the epistemic type of uncertainty is important and is practically feasible. The thrust of this lecture is to present the simple concepts and illustrate them with specific examples in the design of specific infrastructure systems.
About the speaker
Prof Alfredo H. Ang is currently Research Professor and Professor Emeritus at the University of California, Irvine. He is also Professor Emeritus at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign since 1988.
Prof Ang's main area of research is on the application of probability and reliability in civil and structural engineering, with emphasis on safety of engineering systems, including seismic risk and earthquake engineering, quantitative risk assessment (QRA) and life-cycle cost consideration.
Prof Ang is a founding member of the International Association of Structural Safety and Reliability (IASSAR) and the Honorary President of the International Association of Life-Cycle Civil Engineering (IALCCE). He was elected Member of the US National Academy of Engineering in 1976. He is also an Honorary Member of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). He has received a large number of prestigious awards from ASCE and other societies, including the N.M Newmark Medal and the A. M. Freudenthal Medal.
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